The relationship between number line estimation and mathematical reasoning: a quantile regression approach

Number line estimation has been found to be strongly related to mathematical reasoning concurrently and longitudinally. However, the relationship between number line estimation and mathematical reasoning might differ according to children’s level of performance. This study investigates whether findings from previous studies that show number line estimation significantly predicting mathematical reasoning replicate, and whether this relationship holds across several points of the mathematical reasoning distribution. Participants include 324 Singaporean children (162 girls, M_age = 74.1 months, SD_age = 4.0) in their second year of kindergarten who were assessed on the number line estimation task (0–10 and 0–100) and mathematical reasoning skills. The results replicate previous findings showing that higher accuracy on the number line estimation task is predictive of higher mathematical reasoning, for both the 0–10 and 0–100 number line. Quantile regressions show that performance on the number line task similarly predict mathematical reasoning across the performance distribution. Possible differences between the 0–10 and 0–100 number line’s predictive capacity are discussed.